As part of my ongoing series to make business psychology models more simple and practical, I seek to address the question:
What is Gut Instinct?
(And why it may not be as good as you think)
Over the last ten years or so, I have run hundreds of workshops on Unconscious Bias (in the context of Diversity & Inclusion) with thousands of people hanging on my every word. Or, at least that’s what I tell myself. And if there’s one thing I would stake my fee on, it would be a question arising about gut instinct.
“I know you say ‘we are all biased’, but what about my gut instincts?”
“When I meet someone, I just know whether they’re good or not. What about that?”
“I have lived my life by my instincts and they’ve not let me down so far. They work, right?”
“I don’t know what it is, but I just didn’t have a good feeling about him. Should I just ignore that??”
It seems to really strike a chord. We have such firm belief in our instincts about other people, that when someone like me tells you to, at the very least, be extremely cautious in their use, it prompts cynicism, disbelief and on occasion anger.
So, let’s clear a few things up. What do we know about gut instinct? And why is it not as good as you think?
Instincts: A Playground for Bias
First, instinct is a slippery concept. Most people would agree that it is related to our ability to interpret the world and arrive at conclusions without having to think too much about them. Scholars of neuropsychology would describe the role of the emotion-led limbic system as the ‘driver’, with the prefrontal cortex acting as the more rational and analytical ‘navigator’. Bruce Henderson of the Boston Consulting Group put it as “the subconscious integration of all the experiences, conditioning and knowledge of a lifetime, including the cultural and emotional biases of that lifetime.”
And herein lies the problem; the involvement of our learned “cultural and emotional biases”. As humans, we are all biased. We have a well developed arsenal of cognitive shortcuts that simplify the complex world into a few simple rules of engagement. And it is here that our gut instinct both thrives and is influenced by our biases.
Before we go any further, this is not to say that gut instinct is always wrong. If it were, it would never have evolved in the first place. In our ancient past, our ability to instinctively interpret whether something was a threat or not was an advantage. Taking time to carefully weigh up the pros and cons of various actions while the lion stalks us through the Savannah would clearly be inadvisable. It’s a lion! Run!!
However, the world is a far more complex, subtle and nuanced place today. The decisions we make demand a more rational, analytical approach. We need to engage the prefrontal cortex to keep the limbic system in line.
Instincts in Decisions: More Luck than Judgement?
Take the recruitment of a new team member as an example. This is a critical decision and requires a careful and objective analysis of all available and relevant information. But, we “get a feeling”. Our instincts wade in and shout “yes” or no”. And maybe that decision turns out to be the right one, but I would argue this is more luck than judgement.
Consider the biases that could be involved here. For example, our tendency to see patterns where they don’t exist (apophenia). Or confirmation bias, our tendency to arrive at pre-judgements (intuitions) and look for information to confirm why we are right. Or selective attention, which precludes us from seeing the full array of relevant data available. Or stereotypes, which reduce the unique characteristics of a person down to a series of simplified expectations. And what about the self-fulfilling prophecy of hindsight bias, where we “knew it all along”?
These are but a few of the biases that can cloud our judgement. But the research is clear; the predictive validity (i.e. how confident we can be of a person’s success in role) of structured selection interviews that enforce objectivity are three times higher than those unstructured, free-form ‘chats’ masquerading as interviews. Why? Because our biases and instincts are controlled and harnessed effectively.
So, while we have all be told at one time or another to “trust our gut”, the reality is far more complex. The allure of intuition is strong, but using it as guide for making complex and nuanced decisions is a recipe for failure. It is the wrong tool for the job. Find a better one.
Want to know more? Give us a call on 07768 464680.